The FY 2026 H-1B cap is expected to operate under a weighted lottery based on wage level.

It is still a lottery, but selection odds are no longer flat.

This is one of the most meaningful structural changes to the H-1B cap process in years.
And it changes how employers should think about preparation.

As the saying goes (Wayne Gretzky): “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.”

In this context, that means: you can’t be selected if you don’t register.
Sitting on the sidelines is no longer a neutral choice.

Here’s what matters most, and where employers and their foreign talent should focus now.

The H-1B lottery still exists, but the odds have changed

Under the new framework, registrations are expected to be weighted by wage level:

• Higher wage levels = stronger statistical odds (not guaranteed selection)
• Lower wage levels = fewer relative chances, but eligible and possible
• Each beneficiary is still counted once toward the annual cap

The statutory cap remains unchanged:
65,000 regular H-1Bs + 20,000 U.S. master’s cap exemptions.

January preparation matters more than ever

No one knows exactly how the math will play out, but one thing is certain:

Only candidates who are registered can be selected.

If you have candidates who are otherwise eligible, meeting business needs, and in your talent pipeline, plan to register them.

At a minimum, employers should confirm and document:

• Job title and core duties
• Work location (including hybrid or remote realities)
• SOC code, OEWS wage level, and offered wage as of October 1

Being proactive remains the strongest position.

How wage-level weighting is expected to work?

While final USCIS guidance is still pending, the working framework is expected to look like this:

• Wage Level IV – 4 entries
  Senior or high skilled roles with high independence or leadership
• Wage Level III – 3 entries
  Mid-to-senior roles performing complex duties
• Wage Level II – 2 entries
  Experienced professionals with moderate supervision
• Wage Level I – 1 entry
  Entry-level roles 

A few practical notes employers should keep in mind:

• If an alternative or industry survey wage falls below OEWS Level I, it is expected to default to Level I for registration
• If salary is listed as a range, the lowest end of the range is expected to control
• If multiple worksites apply, the lowest applicable wage level should be used

Important clarification: wage levels are not salaries

Wage levels reflect relative job complexity and seniority within an occupation and location, not simply how much someone earns.

As DHS acknowledged during rulemaking, many well-paid professionals may still fall into Wage Level I or II due to role, geography, or experience structure.

Key takeaway:
Early alignment between job duties, SOC code, wage level, and compensation is now essential.

Are Level I roles “dead”?

No, but the curve and strategy has changed.

Level I registrations remain eligible, but may face lower relative odds under a weighted system.

Importantly, this approach is far more balanced than the 2021 proposal (under the prior Trump Administration), which would have effectively eliminated entry-level filings.

What does this mean for U.S. master’s candidates?

A U.S. master’s degree will help and if with higher wage levels even more significantly.

Together, they create a meaningful advantage.

For Level I candidates, more intention, flexibility, and multi-track planning will be needed.
For Level II–IV candidates, the advantage becomes more tangible under the new system.

What we’re still watching closely

USCIS has not issued any guidance yet.

We’re expecting to learn about:

• Final registration form fields
• Detailed guidance on wage consistency from registration through filing and beyond
• Clarification on how adjustments or corrections will be handled

How does uncertainty affect the lottery this year?

This uncertainty may actually reshape the pool.

Several factors could reduce the number of total registrations, including:

• The proposed $100,000 fee for certain consular-processing cases
• Travel restrictions affecting citizens of certain countries
• Hesitation from employers or candidates outside the U.S.

If fewer overseas or consular cases are registered, candidates already in the U.S. filing as a change of status may benefit, simply because there is less overall competition.

We won’t know the math until the lottery runs, but uncertainty cuts both ways.

Does the $100,000 fee apply to everyone?

No.

The $100,000 fee is expected to apply only to cases requiring consular processing, not to most change-of-status filings (for example, F-1 to H-1B in the U.S.).

That distinction matters, and it may influence who ultimately enters the lottery.

Can employers use a different SOC code to improve odds?

Not just to improve odds.

SOC codes must accurately reflect real job duties and requirements. USCIS has made clear it will scrutinize registrations that appear manipulated to influence selection.

That said, some roles legitimately fit more than one SOC code, and where that flexibility is defensible, employers should use it thoughtfully and carefully.

The goal is alignment, not gaming the system.

Final thoughts

This year’s H-1B cap is no longer about chance alone. It’s about showing up proactive, prepared, and intentional.

Uncertainty remains, but waiting it out is not a strategy.

If a candidate is eligible, filling a business need, and positioned to move forward, the strongest move is still to be in the game.

📄 Be on the lookout for our upcoming H-1B Cap 2026 Readiness Infographic (Weighted Selection Edition)

This material is not intended as legal advice.

Giselle Carson, Esq.
Corporate Immigration Attorney and Foreign Talent Strategist
marksgray.com |